Waterford, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

723
FXUS63 KDTX 041036
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
636 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain arrives late tonight through tomorrow morning.

- Cooler conditions ensue early next week with rain/snow showers
likely on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes today and
will maintain dry conditions through late afternoon. The center of
the sfc high will drift across the northern lakes today which will
maintain an easterly component to the light sfc winds. Ample low
level dry air will maintain clear skies below 12k feet through the
afternoon. Low pressure and an associated warm front is forecast to
lift into the northern Ohio Valley tonight. This system will advect
ample moisture into the elevated portions of the front over Se Mi.
This will result in widespread rain expanding across Se Mi late
this evening and persisting through the overnight. Moisture
advection and the rain will lower ceilings into the IFR and LIFR
range overnight. High instability is forecast to remain south of
metro Detroit. So the chances of thunderstorms overnight is too low
to include in the terminals at this time.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening through Saturday
  morning.

* Low in thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

DISCUSSION...

1030mb high pressure settles over the Great Lakes through the day
bringing dry weather and seasonal temperatures as temperatures
progress into the low 50s to mid 50s.

A deep trough extending well into northern Mexico with a secondary
trough over the central Canadian Provinces and northern Plains will
be the primary driver that favors the robust advection of Gulf
moisture that arrives over the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes
late tonight into tomorrow morning. Enhanced moisture transport on
the nose of a 50+ knot llj boost PW values aoa 1.30 inches overnight
highlighting the strong degree of moisture transport. Significant
ageostrophic flow along the nose of the jet will boost inertial
forcing and will result in widespread rain that will blossom across
the entirety of the cwa starting late tonight.

Despite favorable low-level dynamics, exact placement of strongest mesoscale
forcing is under question. Recent model trends have pushed the
localized higher qpf totals south of the Michigan state line,
through a small degree of hi-res solutions (NAM/RAP/RRFS/RDPS) still
support the potential for rainfall totals exceeding the 1" mark
confined to or south of the M-59 corridor. Given the complete lack of
instability, poorer mid-level lapse rates, and recent trends,
expectations are tempered towards the lower end qpf solution. Please
see the hydrology section for additional details. The window for
rainfall will be late tonight into tomorrow morning, with trailing
weaker-end forcing ahead of a cold front then producing only
scattered light shower potential leading into the afternoon hours.

There will be a secondary low-end window for additional rain showers
tomorrow evening as a weak shortwave attempts to clip portions of
southeast Michigan, but this will be contending against a strong
degree of cold and dry air advection which will efficiently pivot
the moisture axis east of the state. Will maintain a low-end chance
for showers to continue into the day given this possibility, but the
big picture favors the moisture axis and thus any impactful qpf to
again hold south and east of the state line.

The aforementioned cold front will return temperature highs back
into the upper 40s on Sunday, which will likely be the warmest of
the days through the early week period. A strong mid-level wave will
carve into the greater trough across the Midwest during the early
week which will reinforce a strong thermal trough for this time of
years. Temperatures at 850mb drop as low as -14C Tuesday morning,
bringing lows in the 20s and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s on
Tuesday with lows again dropping into the 20s for Wednesday morning.
Additionally, this wave will also bring the likely chance for
widespread rain/snow or snow Monday. Some slushy snow accumulation
may be possible with the passage of the upper-level wave.

MARINE...

High pressure has centered itself over the Great Lakes and will
result in fairly light northerly winds, generally less than 15
knots, that will veer to easterly this evening into the overnight.
We will remain dry today but the next low pressure system will lift
northeast toward Lake Erie tonight into Saturday along a stalled
frontal boundary laid out to our south. This will bring a period of
showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight into Saturday. There
is some question how far north the precipitation will make it with
high confidence reaching the southern end of Lake Huron and lower
confidence for points northward. The front drops back south for
Sunday leading to quieter conditions again. Winds will be back out
of the north or northwest Saturday night into Sunday but only look
to gust into the lower 20 knot range.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain showers will fill in across SE MI late tonight
through tomorrow morning. Rainfall totals are expected to range
between a quarter-inch to a half-inch for most of the forecast area.
There will be a very low end chance for some isolated thunderstorms
around or just north of the state line, which would then bring the
chance to see rainfall totals to or in excess of three-quarter
inches. However, the current expectation is for stronger storms and
thus qpf totals in excess of an inch to hold south of the state line.
Given prior widespread rain activity and saturated soil, some
ponding of water on roadways and localized flooding in low-lying
areas may still be possible.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....AM


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